4 Scenarios for the Coming Collapse of US Empire

[mardhi]

As a keen reader of military history I have long held the view that the influence of the US is going to reduce in time - however this guy sums it up much more simply than I have read before and what is especially interesting is the parallels with history. For those old enough - who would have thought that Britian would lose its dominance so quickly.

Certainly some interesting thought provoking pieces in this article no matter what an individuals political views are.



http://www.alternet.org/world....=entire

[Bumpa STIKKA]

It's shameful what has happened to 'Great' Britain in the last 70 years.

Our soldiers were slaughtered in two world wars for fuck all.

The bulk of my cash holdings is in Hong Kong dollars. I regard investment in the UK as 'money I can afford to lose' and purely a gamble.

[strocube]

Excellent post, Mardhi.
Yes, this monster will die, just like all the other monstrous empires before it.
Oh, wait, I forgot, the U.S. does not have and empire, "we" are merely making the world safe for democracy, or combating global Islamic terrorism, or whatever the fuck the current justification may be for their EMPIRE--bastards!

[manarak]

yes, interesting article.

I have no doubt about the decline, the signs are clear.

I am worried about what the US will try to do to counteract.

[manarak]

One smart thing the US could do is make the inevitable happen earlier and save resources that can be spent on strategic goals.

i.e. disengage the military now from 80% of its bases and reassign the budget into making making more US brains and invest into computer tech and air/space tech to project power instead of using expensive fleets and bases.


Thinking about it, the US economy is about to become similar to Europe's (i.e. gloomy, stagnating, depressed), with the difference that I believe the US have better chances in the long run.
Europe is profoundly and totally fucked, while the US still have rich natural resources to go along with entrepreneurial spirit and low cost of living, while in Europe almost everyone is a risk-averse employee with an expensive rent to pay.

[manarak]

Another interesting question is why foreign students go back to their alleged "third world" country when they have graduated?

I think this is because they can have a much better life in their home country than in the USA.

[mardhi]

(manarak @ Dec. 12 2010,02:11) Another interesting question is why foreign students go back to their alleged "third world" country when they have graduated?

I think this is because they can have a much better life in their home country than in the USA.

From an Asian perspective its easy - its ingrained in Chinese families that wealth is passed through the family, so its pretty simple to deduce that the family firm, which pays for the foreign education is really nothing more than an investment in the future owner being able to use that knowledge and 'grow' the family business. Just look at how most of Thailands wealth is owned - its generations old for the most part and NONE of them would dream of doing a "Bill Gates" and leaving it all to charity - there view is simple - you keep it, nurture it and pass it on within the family.

[manarak]

not incompatible with what I said.
If the business is good enough to pay for full studies in the US, then it is probably worthwhile to keep.
There are probably luxury cars, nice houses and some personal employees making life enjoyable, not to mention readily available girls...

[azza33]

Interesting article...

No doubt gold old US of A is waning... i just think people underestimate its ability to recover.

I did write somewhere in the forum a little while back that the US was fucked

I'm a little more upbeat now as there are signs there still is a pulse.

The deficit etc are bad, yes, the only solution to tackle this is a broad based consumption tax across goods and services, slashing expenditure govt. is not the key.
Although this will occur to a certain point as US leaves the war zones in the next few years.

Coupled with the implementation of a new 5-15% tax, the budget could be brought under control quite rapidly,

It will happen imo, but not until the economy is stable and self sustaining.

[Stewart]

(strocube @ Dec. 12 2010,01:43) Excellent post, Mardhi.
Yes, this monster will die, just like all the other monstrous empires before it.
Oh, wait, I forgot, the U.S. does not have and empire, "we" are merely making the world safe for democracy, or combating global Islamic terrorism, or whatever the fuck the current justification may be for their EMPIRE--bastards!

There will always be nations that are more successful/powerful than others. Just by definition someone will always be at the top of any list you create.

So, which would you prefer? - the one on top to be a country like China ruled by the communist party, or maybe Iran ruled by the mullahs, or Russia ruled by the mafia?

Or a country with some semblance of rule of law and personal freedom?

The US is not perfect, far from it. But how about you commenting and debating on the alternatives, rather than just trashing the current top dog?

[mardhi]

I suspect where the article is going is that no matter what anyone desires - the simple fact of the matter is that the spending on the war in Iraq and Afghanistan is not sustainable as well as the already bloated costs of supporting the 800 bases that the US military have.

I Just looked up on Wikipedia (ok not the most reliable of sources), but the expected total defense spending to between $1.01 Trillion and $1.35 Trillion in fiscal year 2010. I may have got this confused as I am not sure how the billions and trillions are calculated but does that mean:-

$1,350,000,000,000
divided by roughly 200,000,000 people in the US (paying taxes, not total population)
= $ 67,500 for every person assuming a 33% ratio for non taxpayers (children, poor etc etc).

I assume these figures cannot be right - a spend of $67,500 in one year per person just for defense spending (which is approx: 20% of the total budget, which would mean the country is spending $300,000 for every tax payer in the country or $200,000 for every living sole in the country ) and that would just be for 2010 fiscal year.........

Can someone else clarify the figures - surely I have a couple of zero's in the wrong places otherwise its staggering !!!!!

Cheers
Mardhi

[azza33]

$6750

[Torurot]

When you hold yourself up as being the worlds sunshine & light in every sense you better walk the walk or you will be labelled "hypocrite". Wikileaks and others have exposed that the Emperor really does have no clothes.

[Stewart]

(Torurot @ Dec. 12 2010,15:33) When you hold yourself up as being the worlds sunshine & light in every sense you better walk the walk or you will be labelled "hypocrite".  Wikileaks and others have exposed that the Emperor really does have no clothes.

More whining

Whining and bitching is easy

So, how about commenting on the alternatives? ie how naked would the Russians, Iranians or Chinese be if their diplomatic cables were available for public scrutiny?

[azza33]

I agree with you Stewart, i enjoy the fucked up corrupt freedoms the western society allows... happy to keep doing until the day i die  

Those who wanna live in places like North Korea, Iran , China.... hey go for it... let me know how you go...